×

West Virginia is off to the 2024 races

With the 2023 legislative session wrapping up and with the 2024 elections still a long way off, the various races for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, Governor and other state constitutional offices have been quiet. That is beginning to change.

We’re now at three elected officials seeking the Republican nomination for governor: House Judiciary Committee Chairman Moore Capito of Kanawha County; Secretary of State Mac Warner of Monongalia County; and State Auditor J.B. McCuskey, a native of Harrison County. Chris Miller, the son of 1st District Rep. Carol Miller, R-W.Va., has been in the race for more than a year.

Capito got in at the end of last year, but with running one of the two major legislative committees with a near constant heavy workload, his opportunities to campaign and fundraise have been somewhat limited. Warner, jumping into the race in January, has had more flexibility to travel and fundraise. McCuskey just got in a few weeks ago, but much like Warner, his job takes him all around the state. And Miller fought in Rough N’ Rowdy, then went to the Conservative Political Action Conference and gave a speech.

Even in a short amount of time, Capito has raised more than $532,000 as of the end of the year and with little to spend money on, he has more than $529,000 in cash on hand. That’s a credit to having a mother who is a U.S. senator, Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., and has a ready-built network to tap into, both for fundraising and campaigning.

McCuskey is not so far behind, having already ran two statewide campaigns while Moore Capito has only ran in the Charleston area for his House of Delegates seat. McCuskey only raised more than $170,000 during a three-month quarter between October and December 2022 (McCuskey remains listed as an undeclared precandidate, allowing him to raise money in the off-season). But he has more than $330,000 in cash on hand. Now with his official announcement for governor, those donations will pick up.

After announcing his run in December 2021, Miller raised $1.2 million, but $900,000 of that was a loan from himself. He only raised nearly $20,000 during the quarter and has more than $956,000 in cash on hand.

Warner still has some more work to do on the fundraising front. Warner only has more than $15,000 in cash on hand, raising $10,800 during the quarter and nearly $53,000 election year-to-date. But that was all before his January announcement. Since then, Warner has had at least one fundraiser at the Bullock Distillery on Charleston’s West Side. No one should underestimate Warner. Ask former Democratic Secretary of State Natalie Tennant how that worked out in 2016.

••••••

The elephant in the room (pun intended, as the humble elephant is a symbol of the Republican Party) is Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and whether he intends to run for a fourth term as the state’s top attorney or run for U.S. Senate again or seek the open governor’s seat in 2024.

But there appears to be some outside pressure to influence Morrisey away from a Senate run and to the Republican governor’s race. A political action committee, Black Bear PAC, named for the state animal and the black bears that sit outside of the Attorney General’s Office in the State Capitol Building, released the results of a poll claiming that Morrisey would win a Republican primary for governor if the election were held today.

The poll, conducted by National Research Inc. between Feb. 23 and Feb. 28 with 600 likely 2024 primary voters with live telephone interviewers, has Morrisey leading with 28% support in a match-up between Capito, Warner, Miller, McCuskey and a Jeff Mullins. Of the announced candidates, Capito has 15%, Warner has 11%, Miller has 6%, and Mullins and McCuskey split 3%. Of those polled, 29% were undecided.

I have a few issues with this poll. For one, those numbers don’t even equal 100%. Where is the missing 5% of those polled? Secondly, I don’t know who this Jeff Mullins is, but if it is former Republican Raleigh County state senator Mullins, he hasn’t been in office since he resigned in 2018.

That brings me to my next point: I find it hard to believe that McCuskey, who has run in two successful statewide campaigns for State Auditor in 2016 and 2020, is polling at 3% and tied with a backbencher state senator with barely one term under his belt. McCuskey literally received more votes than every other state constitutional officer on the ballot in 2016, and only came in second in total votes in 2020 to Gov. Jim Justice.

Morrisey has yet to file any pre-candidacy paperwork for 2024, but looking at his reports for his Attorney General committee, Morrisey has more than $501,000 in cash-on-hand. Black Bear PAC has more than $2 million according to its most recent Federal Election Commission report. The PAC is run by Scott Will, an old Morrisey campaign hand who also runs Attorney General Strategies in Washington D.C.

According to WV MetroNews Talkline host Hoppy Kercheval, most of Black Bear’s money comes from Richard Uihlein. Liberal website DailyKos links Uihlein with the conservative Club for Growth.

DailyKos believes this might be Club for Growth’s way of pushing Morrisey to run for governor instead of the U.S. Senate where 2nd District Congressman Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., is already mounting a campaign to be the challenger for Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. (if Manchin runs again). Club for Growth backed Mooney in the 2022 Republican primary when he defeated former 1st District Congressman David McKinley.

I’m not sure if I buy that theory or not. I do know, though, that Morrisey is going to have to decide what he wants to do soon. With more candidates announcing early for various offices, there will only be so many pieces of the fundraising pie to go around.

(Adams is the state government reporter for Ogden Newspapers. He can be contacted at sadams@newsandsentinel.com)

NEWSLETTER

Today's breaking news and more in your inbox

I'm interested in (please check all that apply)
Are you a paying subscriber to the newspaper? *

Starting at $4.73/week.

Subscribe Today