MORGANTOWN — If West Virginia is to pull off a surprising run to the Big 12 Championship this season, which has been slated as one of the long-term goals for the team, they are going to have to do it against perhaps the most difficult conference schedule played by any team in the league.

What’s more, the Mountaineers full schedule is almost certainly the toughest any Big 12 team will face as, in addition to its punishing run through the conference, it opens with No. 9 Penn State on Aug. 31, then two weeks later must travel to Pitt for a road renewal of the Backyard Brawl.

And, if you think in between those two games the Albany Great Danes provide much of respite, forget it as they are ranked No. 14 in the FCS preseason coaches poll after going to the FCS semifinal game before losing to No. 1 South Dakota State last season.

Along the way last year Albany beat No. 16 Villanova, No. 24, William & Mary and No. 4 Idaho while also going on the road to Huntington and taking Marshall down to the wire in a 21-17 loss.

How can we analytically judge the strength of WVU’s Big 12 schedule this season before a game is played? One way is to use the ESPN Power Ratings heading into the Big 12 season, each opponent carrying the numerical rate it holds in the power ratings. Add them up and the team with the “lowest” numerical figure plays the “toughest” schedule.

Here are ESPN’s Power Rating of the Big 12 for 2024 (WVU opponents in italics):

1. Utah, 2. Oklahoma State, 3. Arizona, 4. Kansas State, 5. Iowa State, 6. West Virginia, 7. Kansas, 8. TCU, 9. Texas Tech, 10. UCF, 11. Baylor, 12. BYU, 13. Houston, 14. Colorado, 15. Cincinnati, 16. ASU.

Take a good look at that for a moment. True, WVU does not play the No. 1 team in the conference in Utah, but it also doesn’t face the No. 16 team in Arizona State.

The fact is WVU, ranked 6th, plays five of the first seven teams in the ranking — missing only themselves and Utah. Nos. 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7 are on their schedule.

What’s more, WVU plays against 7 of the conference’s Top 10 teams and 8 of the top 11.

That means of the Top 11 teams they miss only Utah and TCU.

Put it all together and WVU’s schedule power rating stands at 66, which ranks third toughest in the conference behind Colorado, which comes in at 62, and Arizona State, which is 63. Also at 66 is Houston, making those four the only teams under 70.

Here is the league’s strength of schedule using this method from the toughest to the weakest:

Colorado 62; Arizona State 63, West Virginia and Houston 66, Texas Tech 70, TCU 71, Baylor and Iowa State 76, Oklahoma State 81, Utah 83, Cincinnati, 85, Kansas and Central Florida 89, Kansas State 90, Arizona 96.

Arizona, which finished third in the coaches preseason poll, plays a ridiculously easy conference schedule after a tough start in which it plays at ESPN’s No. 4 Kansas State and No. 1 Utah, then No. 9 Texas Tech.

If it survives that, over its final seven games the only team in the top half of the league it faces is West Virginia.

Over its final seven games Arizona plays against Nos. 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 in addition to WVU.

As easy as Arizona’s late season is, that’s how tough WVU’s opening-season stretch is. One thing is certain, if WVU can survive Penn State, Albany, Pitt, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State and Arizona through the first eight games it will earn national attention and respect before it closes with four of the bottom eight teams in Cincinnati, Baylor, Central Florida and Texas Tech.

If WVU can win five of the first eight games, repeating last year’s 9-4 record would seem to be within reach and a 10-victory year would be a reachable goal.

Coach Neal Brown has been realistic about the situation and understands that schedules sometimes work out to be tougher or easier than they seem.

“The schedule is to be determined,” Brown said during one of his press conferences in camp. “Everybody was whining about last year’s schedule, and in hindsight, if you remember, we opened up with Penn State, a top-10 team, played Pitt, who was on a lot of people’s Top 25 list and then Texas Tech came in here and they were preseason Top 25. “On paper, (this year’s schedule) looks really hard and our league is extremely deep.”

Figuring out power ratings on this year’s Big 12 is difficult because the difference between teams appears to be paper thin.

“The talent disparity from team 1 to 16 in our league is not this drastic gap like there is in other leagues,” Brown said. “So many games come down to the fourth quarter. Your margins are small, so we have to be really good situationally.”