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A $1 contract can be worth 40 cents today and 65 cents next week. That’s the business behind prediction markets, and American sports organizations are getting involved. There’s plenty happening here beyond picking the winner of Sunday’s game.
The Steelers might be flying in September and struggling by November, but their fans will still be watching every Sunday. What changes is what people reckon their chances are. Prediction markets let people put money on those predictions, then buy or sell their contracts as the season develops. It’s catching on in a big way, and Major League Baseball has already signed a deal with Polymarket.
A Sporting Prediction Becomes a Tradable Contract
Say you reckon the Steelers will win their division. On a prediction market, you can buy a contract that pays $1 if they finish top. A Yes contract priced at 40 cents means you’d pay $40 for 100 contracts, which would return $100 if your prediction proves correct.
The interesting part comes before the season ends. Suppose Pittsburgh wins several games and suddenly looks a stronger contender. Other traders may be willing to pay 65 cents for those same contracts. You could sell your 100 contracts for $65, taking a $25 profit without waiting to see who wins the division.
Of course, the price can also fall. An injury to a key player or a run of defeats could leave those contracts worth considerably less than you paid.
That’s the basic idea behind prediction markets. You can hold a contract until the result is settled or trade it earlier, depending on what happens during the season.
Sports Lead the Growth in Prediction Markets
Americans have taken to the idea, particularly when sporting results are involved. An August 2026 survey of approximately 2,500 US internet adults found that 10% had traded on prediction markets during the previous year. Among those participants, 70% had traded on sports outcomes, putting sports comfortably ahead of other categories.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup gave the industry an enormous boost. With matches taking place throughout June and July, traders had a steady supply of results to predict, from individual fixtures to the eventual tournament winner.
Combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from approximately $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July. During June and July, sports trading exceeded $58 billion on Kalshi and approached $22 billion on Polymarket.
Those figures represent global trading activity rather than money earned by the exchanges. Contracts can change hands repeatedly, with each transaction contributing to the total.
Still, the World Cup demonstrated what happens when a major sporting event attracts traders from around the world. American football and baseball provide plenty of opportunities to keep that interest going throughout the year.
Major League Baseball Enters the Market
Professional baseball has already made its move. On March 19, 2026, Major League Baseball named Polymarket its official prediction-market exchange partner, bringing event trading into a formal commercial relationship with one of America’s biggest sporting organizations.
The agreement gives Polymarket access to official MLB data through Sportradar and permission to use league branding. It also includes safeguards concerning contracts tied to individual pitches, managerial decisions and umpire performance.
Polymarket’s arrival in professional baseball also puts its welcome promotion in context. Covers' breakdown explains the $20 trading bonus available with a qualifying $10 deposit, including the promotional code, eligibility requirements and conditions attached to the credit.
The MLB agreement is particularly interesting because baseball provides so many opportunities to trade on future results. A division race can remain unsettled for months, and a team’s chances of reaching the playoffs can change considerably during a 162-game regular season.
The Questions Extend Beyond the Scoreboard
Sports might attract the biggest crowds, but the same trading principle applies to events outside the stadium.
Take an upcoming Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. A prediction market can offer contracts on whether officials will raise rates, lower them or leave them unchanged. Traders buy positions based on what they expect the announcement to be, and prices respond as new economic information becomes available.
Politics works along similar lines. Contracts can concern election results, with prices changing as campaigns progress and new polling information becomes available.
The August 2026 American survey found that 36% of prediction-market participants had traded on economic or financial outcomes, compared with 33% who had traded on political outcomes. Another 44% had participated in more than one event category.
That crossover is worth noting. Someone who starts by trading on a football championship can use the same basic approach to follow an election or an economic announcement, provided the relevant contracts are available.
A New Place for Sporting Predictions
The next time the Steelers put together a winning streak, supporters will have plenty to say about their playoff chances. Prediction markets give those opinions a price, with contracts changing hands as the season progresses.
The bigger development is that professional sports organizations are getting involved themselves. MLB’s agreement with Polymarket shows that event trading has become a serious commercial interest within American sports.
Fans will keep arguing about who wins on Sunday. Now there’s another way to back up those predictions before the game is played.