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Predicting how Rich Rod’s second tenure may go

The first time Rich Rodriguez was at West Virgina, he brought immediate success. He won multiple Big East titles, a couple of big bowl games, and was almost in a national championship.

When Rodriguez was hired back in December, the hope for fans was that he’d bring WVU right back where he left off. It’s unrealistic that it would happen immediately. Even if you look at his first season, he didn’t start off hot.

Rodriguez has a couple of years to refind his footing. He signed a five-year deal with the Mountaineers, ending in 2029, so he’ll be in Morgantown for a decent amount of time, barring he doesn’t get canned.

A lot has changed since he was last at WVU. There’s the College Football Playoff, WVU is in the Big 12, there’s NIL, revenue-sharing and a revolving door of a transfer portal. It’s a completely different time period.

Rodriguez is fully embracing this new era and hopes that in his time, he can bring West Virginia back into college football prominence, which has been missing since he left.

Here’s what Rodriguez’s second tenure could look like:

Bowl Games? Yes

If Rodriguez doesn’t get WVU to a bowl game in his first two years, then it won’t be pretty. It might not happen in his first season because of all the turnover and adjusting, but it definitely should in Year 2.

Athletic director Wren Baker said he wants to see momentum from season to season, and it would definitely be on an upward trajectory if Rodriguez gets the Mountaineers to a bowl game in Year 2.

After the first season, Rodriguez should be in a bowl game every year, because that’s the bare minimum. He’s a proven winner, so it shouldn’t be an issue. Deeper into his contract, the bowl game should be higher caliber, too.

College Football Playoff? Yes

With College Football Playoff expansion, it’s getting easier and easier to make the playoff, especially if it moves to 16 or 20-plus teams. A playoff appearance means WVU will be ranked in the top 15 or lower, which could happen once during Rodriguez’s tenure.

Rodriguez had the Mountaineers ranked in the top 15 five times and Arizona once. He also had Michigan ranked in the top 25 a couple times. It’s definitely possible, and should be a goal in his five years, or he’ll stint will be looked at as a failure.

Big 12 Championship? Yes

Winning the Big 12 is harder than making the College Football Playoff. WVU has to have the best record or second-best record in the conference, and then win the extra game.

In the last five years, there have been five different conference champions. The Big 12 is usually anyone’s conference to win. Arizona State was projected to finish last a season ago, and won the title. It provides hope that one year, WVU can surprise teams and sneak out a title.

National Championship? No

West Virginia doesn’t fit the recent national champion description, and it’s not Rodriguez’s fault. Over the past 10 years, the title has been won by a blue-blood college football program. Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, etc. The big-name programs. The schools that have a ton of boosters and money flowing in to support the program.

WVU has boosters, and Baker announced the Mountaineers reached the $20.5 million of revenue-sharing, but Baker said it was a lot of effort to get to that point. It might be hard to sustain every year.

Rodriguez has to work with what he’s got, and it’s just not fair compared to the blue-blood programs. In 2007, Rodriguez was on the cusp, but that was before the league was run by money, and he still never won one.

Rodriguez will make WVU competitive again, but a national championship isn’t realistic in this age of college football. Rodriguez isn’t the only one fighting an uphill battle. There are a ton of programs that are just a tier below that don’t really have a shot.

Contract Extension? Yes

If all goes well, a couple of bowl games, a Big 12 title and a CFP appearance, Rodriguez should get an extension if he wants to continue to coach. He’s 62 now, and in five years, he’ll be 67, so there’ll be questions if he wants to keep coaching. This summer, Rodriguez stated multiple times that coaching is a lot better than working in the coal mines or picking weeds, so he’ll definitely stick around.

The extension might not be long, but he could be around for 7-10 years, similar to his first time at WVU.

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