Attention is already turning to the midterm elections next year, which will determine whether Republicans can continue to hold the majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate.

In West Virginia, that means that U.S. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., is up for re-election to a possible third six-year term after winning election to the seat held by former senator Jay Rockefeller in 2014. I say “possible,” because she is beginning to get challengers to her right and no elections are sure things.

The latest person to throw their hat in the ring is freshman state Sen. Tom Willis, the vice chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Willis filed paperwork last Wednesday with the Federal Election Commission to form Tom Willis Victory, allowing him to fundraise and explore a U.S. Senate run (hat tip to T.J. Meadows of WV MetroNews Talkline). Willis’ treasurer is Greg Fornshell, an official with the North Carolina Republican Party.

This is not the first time Willis has run for U.S. Senate. Willis was one of six Republicans in the 2018 primary for U.S. Senate, when then-Democratic senator Joe Manchin was seeking his second six-year term. Willis gained some slight notoriety after not meeting the requirements for one of the debates. Fellow Republican candidate at that time, Don Blankenship, wore a Tom Willis for U.S. Senate hat during that debate.

But despite this blip in publicity, Willis came in fourth in that primary with just under 10% of the vote, or 13,540 votes. Then-Attorney General Patrick Morrisey won that primary with nearly 35% for the vote (48,007 votes). Former congressman, state senator, and state Supreme Court justice Evan Jenkins came in second with 29% of the vote, and Blankenship carried nearly 20% of the vote.

Willis made waves last May when he won the Republican primary for state Senate’s 15th District representing parts of Berkeley, Morgan, and Hampshire counties. The waves were due to defeating a sitting Senate president in Craig Blair. Willis just wrapped up his first regular legislative session as vice chairman of a major committee, rare for a freshman lawmaker.

Capito, a former state lawmaker herself, has been on Capitol Hill since 2001, winning election to the U.S. House seat formerly held by Democrat Bob Wise before he won election as governor. She held off former Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, her Democratic opponent, to win the U.S. Senate seat in 2014.

With Republicans holding the majority in the U.S. Senate, Capito is the fourth ranked member of Senate Republican leadership. She is the chairwoman of the Republican Policy Committee. She chairs the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, and she chairs the Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies Subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee. On May 16, President Donald Trump sung Capito’s praises in a social media post.

“Senator Shelley Moore Capito is doing a tremendous job representing the Wonderful People of West Virginia, a State I love and WON BIG in 2016, 2020, and 2024,” Trump said. “Senator Shelley Moore Capito has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election – SHE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!”

Capito has been able to hold off challengers from her left over the years, but in her last election she saw a challenger from her right. Former West Virginia Family Policy Council leader Allen Whitt only carried 9.6% of the vote in the GOP U.S. Senate primary in 2020, with Capito carrying 83.3% of the vote, or 173,331 votes. In the 2020 general election, Capito had 547,454 total votes, more than Trump’s 545,382 total votes.

If Willis is going to come at Capito from her far-right, he’s going to have to fight off two other people. Derrick Evans, who was briefly a Republican member of the House of Delegates in 2021 but resigned before the start of the regular session after he donned a helmet and stormed the U.S. Capitol Building to stop the certification of the 2020 presidential election for Joe Biden.

Evans pleaded guilty to a felony count of civil disorder for participating in the Jan. 6 riot, though Trump included Evans in his list of pardons for those convicted for Jan. 6 activities. Evans lost the 2024 GOP primary for the 1st Congressional District in the southern half of the state to U.S. Rep. Carol Miller, with Evans only carrying 37% of the vote.

The only other GOP challenger to Capito so far as Alex Gaaserud, a Randolph County native who moved to Wood County last year. Gaaserud attempted a run for the 2nd Congressional District to succeed Alex Mooney who was running (and lost) the GOP primary for U.S. Senate to former governor and now-U.S. Sen. Jim Justice.

Gaaserud went broke in the five-person GOP primary, coming in dead last and only carrying 7% of the vote (7,453 votes). The winner of that race was former state treasurer Riley Moore, the nephew of Capito, who carried 45% of the vote (47,033 votes).

It is still early yet, and West Virginia’s candidate filing period won’t open up until January 2026, so expect more people to jump in. Don’t sleep on Willis, an attorney and a West Virginia National Guard officer. But don’t take Capito for granted either.

(Adams is the state government reporter for Ogden Newspapers. He can be contacted at sadams@newsandsentinel.com)